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Assign SNAP take-up from reported receipt and the FNS participation rate#294

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snap-take-up-stage
Jul 7, 2026
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Assign SNAP take-up from reported receipt and the FNS participation rate#294
daphnehanse11 merged 2 commits into
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snap-take-up-stage

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Summary

Closes #243. Second half of the SNAP work-requirements input surface (#248), alongside #293 (hours).

The published dataset ships takes_up_snap_if_eligible constant True (or omits it — same engine default), so PolicyEngine-US pays SNAP to 100% of eligible units. FNS measures participation among the eligible at ~82%. Universal take-up misstates who receives SNAP and overstates the reach of any eligibility-side reform.

This adds a snap_take_up source stage following the #266/#293 template: manifest entry + shared runtime handler + frame transform + release gate + builder wiring.

Semantics (identical to the retired enhanced-CPS pipeline)

  1. Reported recipients always take up — SPM units with positive raw ASEC SPM_SNAPSUB reported receiving SNAP; survey measurement wins unconditionally.
  2. Non-reporters fill to the published rate — seeded draws grant take-up at exactly the fill rate needed for the overall weighted share to land on the manifest's cited FNS rate (0.82). When reporters alone exceed the rate, nothing is forced — the share is emergent.
  3. Eligibility stays the engine's job — the flag is assigned across all units and PE-US intersects it with modeled eligibility, matching the retired pipeline.

Draws are blake2b hashes keyed by stable source identity (source_year/source_household_id/min source_person_id), so support-channel clones of one source unit always agree and reruns are bit-reproducible. The rate lives in the manifest with its FNS citation — a rate without a citation refuses to run.

Healing + gate

  • The frame transform is idempotent on a signal-carrying column and recomputes when the column is constant — the published all-True landmine is repaired, not trusted.
  • Release gate (snap_take_up_signal): column nonconstant, every reporting unit takes up (anchor preserved), weighted share within [0.70, 0.95]. Threaded through release gate failures, calibration diagnostics, and both manifests, mirroring the immigration and hours gates.

Verification

  • 18 new tests (manifest declaration, anchor/fill/overflow semantics, seed stability, clone consistency, citation enforcement, healing path, gate failure modes); full populace-build suite green.
  • End-to-end against the current 233,716-SPM-unit base: take-up share 0.821 (target 0.82), reported share 0.107 (CPS underreporting is exactly why the fill exists), zero reporters denied, gate green.

Follow-up (not in this PR)

State-calibrated take-up (greedy fill against FNS state household counts, the calibrate_binary_assignment machinery) is deliberately deferred: FNS state counts are average-monthly while the flag is annual-ever, and that bridge deserves its own reviewed decision — see the discussion on #292. National-rate + reported-anchor matches the retired pipeline's published behavior.

Merge-order notes

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Jul 5, 2026
The two data-seeded take-up programs whose participation rate clears the
provenance bar, assigned by calibrated Bernoulli at the administrative rate:

- TANF (takes_up_tanf_if_eligible, spm_unit): 21.9% (HHS ASPE 24th Welfare
  Indicators Report, 2022, Table 10 Indicator 4).
- EITC (takes_up_eitc, tax_unit): per-child rates (IRS National Taxpayer
  Advocate 2020, TY2016: 0=65%, 1=86%, 2=85%, 3+=82%). Child count is
  approximated from tax-unit member ages under 19; the rate is nearly flat
  above zero children so the coarse count picks the right bin.

with_us_take_up_inputs seeds every program the take-up contract marks `seed`
(and only those), keying draws on stable source identity so support-channel
clones agree and reruns are bit-reproducible (the SNAP #294 keying). A frame
already carrying a non-constant column passes through untouched; a missing or
constant column is recomputed, so the published all-True landmine is healed.
No reported-receipt column is threaded through the base spine, so assignment is
calibrated Bernoulli rather than the SNAP reported-receipt anchor.

us_take_up_summary and us_take_up_signal_gate expose the per-program
participation-vs-administrative surface: weighted share, target rate, source,
and a plausibility band, failing on a missing/constant column or an
out-of-band share.

Validated at n=8000: TANF share 0.210 (target 0.219); EITC per-bin
0.648/0.866/0.842/0.832 (targets 0.65/0.86/0.85/0.82); EITC overall 0.797
(IRS ~0.78). 17 seeding tests plus the gate failure modes.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Jul 5, 2026
… take-up contract (#312) (#315)

* Add engine-asserted take-up contract inventory (#312 step 1)

The blocking first deliverable: a checked-in table classifying every
policyengine-us take-up flag, asserted against the installed engine.

- PolicyEngineUSEngine.take_up_variables() / take_up_contract() derive, from
  engine metadata, each takes_up_* flag's entity, default, whether the engine
  computes it (formula / adds / start-date formula), its consumers, and thus an
  engine_class (model_simulated / data_seeded / dead). Same metadata-derivation
  doctrine as the #301 formula-owned guard.
- us/take_up_contract.json records the engine facts plus the curated populace
  treatment (seed / rate_unsourced / model_simulated / out_of_scope /
  near_universal) with each rate's administrative provenance.
- assert_take_up_contract_current() fails the build when the table drifts from
  the pinned engine (new/renamed flag, a flag gaining a formula, a changed
  default); assert_take_up_treatments_consistent() catches treatments that
  contradict the engine class. The loader enforces the provenance rule: a
  program marked seed must carry a sourced administrative rate.

Finding against pinned policyengine-us 1.752.2: all 13 take-up flags are
data_seeded (default True, no formula, all consumed); there are no *_seed
variables and no model-simulated take-up. The chip_take_up_seed / aca_take_up_seed
model-side migration the issue references has not landed in the pinned engine.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Seed TANF and EITC take-up flags from administrative rates (#312 step 2)

The two data-seeded take-up programs whose participation rate clears the
provenance bar, assigned by calibrated Bernoulli at the administrative rate:

- TANF (takes_up_tanf_if_eligible, spm_unit): 21.9% (HHS ASPE 24th Welfare
  Indicators Report, 2022, Table 10 Indicator 4).
- EITC (takes_up_eitc, tax_unit): per-child rates (IRS National Taxpayer
  Advocate 2020, TY2016: 0=65%, 1=86%, 2=85%, 3+=82%). Child count is
  approximated from tax-unit member ages under 19; the rate is nearly flat
  above zero children so the coarse count picks the right bin.

with_us_take_up_inputs seeds every program the take-up contract marks `seed`
(and only those), keying draws on stable source identity so support-channel
clones agree and reruns are bit-reproducible (the SNAP #294 keying). A frame
already carrying a non-constant column passes through untouched; a missing or
constant column is recomputed, so the published all-True landmine is healed.
No reported-receipt column is threaded through the base spine, so assignment is
calibrated Bernoulli rather than the SNAP reported-receipt anchor.

us_take_up_summary and us_take_up_signal_gate expose the per-program
participation-vs-administrative surface: weighted share, target rate, source,
and a plausibility band, failing on a missing/constant column or an
out-of-band share.

Validated at n=8000: TANF share 0.210 (target 0.219); EITC per-bin
0.648/0.866/0.842/0.832 (targets 0.65/0.86/0.85/0.82); EITC overall 0.797
(IRS ~0.78). 17 seeding tests plus the gate failure modes.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* WIP checkpoint: agent stopped mid-task; lead salvaged state

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* WIP checkpoint: agent killed (session limit / stop); lead salvaged

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Register take-up contract resource; fake take-up stages in the builder test; diagnostics test class

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Sort imports (ruff --fix)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

---------

Co-authored-by: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Rebased onto current main (8b1795a, was 14 behind) and squashed the two commits, mirroring the #293 rebase.

Conflict resolutions were the same 11 additive anchor points as #293 — main's TANF/EITC take-up (#315) and eCPS-parity (#316) wiring interleaved with this PR's SNAP wiring. In main() the TANF/EITC seeding + gate now run first, then SNAP take-up + gate; snap_take_up_gate threads through _release_gate_failures/_build_manifests alongside degenerate_input_gate/ecps_parity_gate.

Intended changes beyond conflict resolution:

  • Dropped the stale takes_up_snap_if_eligible reviewed exclusion from US_DEGENERATE_INPUT_REVIEWED_EXCLUSIONS — the merge-order follow-up this PR's description flagged (Gate releases on input columns stuck at the engine default #286 merged first; this stage makes the column non-degenerate, and the cannot-rot gate fails on a listed column that carries signal).
  • Reconciled the Seed TANF and EITC take-up from administrative rates; engine-asserted take-up contract (#312) #315 take-up contract inventory: SNAP stays populace_treatment: "out_of_scope" (flipping it to seed would make with_us_take_up_inputs double-seed it), but the scope_owner/notes now say the stage has landed rather than "in-flight", and clarify that out_of_scope means out of scope for the Bernoulli module, not unseeded. Same doc fix in take_up.py's module docstring.
  • One incidental ruff format hunk in take_up.py (pre-existing three-line ternary collapsed to one).

Verified the rebased net diff against the original with interdiff — no other semantic drift. Full populace-build suite green locally; ruff check + format clean.

Note for merge order with #293: both PRs insert at the same manifest/builder anchor points; whichever merges second gets the same-shape trivial conflict both descriptions anticipate.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

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Heads-up from the medicaid take-up workstream (#334/#337): once #337 lands, parity_gate fails on stale known-gap exemptions — any register entry whose layer the candidate now populates. This branch's SNAP stage will make takes_up_snap_if_eligible exactly that: the entry still sits in ecps_parity_known_gaps.json with reason "Populace does not yet produce it", so the first release build off a rebased #294 will fail the parity gate until that entry is deleted. When rebasing, (1) remove the takes_up_snap_if_eligible entry from the register, and (2) note the take-up contract landed in #315 marks SNAP out_of_scope pointing at this PR — the contract entry's treatment/notes should be updated to reflect the stage actually landing (same pattern #334 used for Medicaid: the stage owns the flag, the contract records how). Also expect small rebase friction in us_runtime/__init__.py and the builder wiring where #334 added its stage alongside where this PR adds SNAP's.

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Approving (agent-assisted review; I verified the load-bearing pieces). The logic is right and the tests are thorough — reported-receipt anchor, weighted fill to the FNS rate, blake2b seeding keyed on source identity for clone-consistency, constant-True healing, and a gate that mirrors the immigration one. 0.82 checks out as the FY2018 FNS national participation rate.

One thing I fixed on the branch rather than bouncing back: this stage makes takes_up_snap_if_eligible a produced layer, but the parity register still exempted it with reason "Populace does not yet produce it." #337 removes the four entries rotted by already-merged work but not this one (it only rots once this merges), and because SNAP stays out_of_scope, it sits outside #337's seeded_take_up_programs() static guard — so the failure would only surface on the first release build after both land. I pushed a commit deleting the entry here; it's safe under current CI (the register only shrinks, nothing asserts presence) and under the pre-#337 gate (the candidate populates the column). Same pattern applies to #293's hours entries — cleanest if each producing PR removes its own register line.

Two nits, neither blocking:

  • The manifest labels the FNS artifact vintage "latest_available" but 0.82 is FY2018 (latest published is FY2022 at 88%) — either pin the vintage to FY2018 in the notes or refresh the rate.
  • The fill target is computed on person "first" weights per SPM unit while the gate measures on resolve_weights("spm_unit"); they coincide today (0.821 achieved vs 0.820 target) but computing the target on the spm_unit basis would keep them locked together if weight resolution ever changes.

daphnehanse11 added a commit that referenced this pull request Jul 7, 2026
Max's review of #294 (SNAP take-up) spotted that the static guard
covered immigration outputs plus seeded_take_up_programs() only, so a
program whose stage produces its flag under a different contract
treatment sat outside it — SNAP (out_of_scope) was hand-fixed on #294,
and count_calibrated programs (Medicaid in #334, CHIP next per the
contract followup) had the same exposure: the staleness failure would
only surface on the first release build, not in CI.

The guard now derives the produced set from contract treatments
({seed, count_calibrated}) instead of the seeded helper, making it the
CI enforcement of the rule that each producing PR removes its own
register line. Keyed on the treatment string rather than #334's
count_calibrated_take_up_programs() helper so the test imports nothing
that does not exist on main yet; it picks up the Medicaid flip (and any
future CHIP flip) automatically at merge, in either merge order.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
daphnehanse11 added a commit that referenced this pull request Jul 7, 2026
Max's #294 review pattern (he independently audited the FNS rate's
vintage against newer publications) says the sharpest domain question
on this stage is the one thing left implicit: the ASEC anchor is
interview-point (~Feb-Apr) while the CMS target is the December
snapshot. Record in the module docstring and the contract calibration
block that both are point-in-time stocks with deliberately unaligned
months, and that the gate's anchor-floor rule absorbs the
declining-2024 direction (spring reporters exceeding a December count)
rather than reading it as a calibration miss.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
daphnehanse11 and others added 2 commits July 7, 2026 13:21
Add a snap_take_up source stage (manifest entry, runtime handler, frame
transform, release gate, builder wiring) following the immigration and
hours templates. Reported SPM_SNAPSUB recipients always take up;
non-reporters fill via seeded stable-identity draws to the cited FNS
0.82 participation rate. Heals the published all-True landmine.
Closes #243; second half of #248 alongside #293.
…duces it

The register reason ('Populace does not yet produce it') becomes false once
this PR's SNAP stage populates the layer, and the entry would fail the
stale-exemption check when #337 lands. #337 removes the four entries rotted
by already-merged work; each producing PR removes its own.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@daphnehanse11 daphnehanse11 merged commit 6d0ae3b into main Jul 7, 2026
4 checks passed
daphnehanse11 added a commit that referenced this pull request Jul 7, 2026
Max's #294 review pattern (he independently audited the FNS rate's
vintage against newer publications) says the sharpest domain question
on this stage is the one thing left implicit: the ASEC anchor is
interview-point (~Feb-Apr) while the CMS target is the December
snapshot. Record in the module docstring and the contract calibration
block that both are point-in-time stocks with deliberately unaligned
months, and that the gate's anchor-floor rule absorbs the
declining-2024 direction (spring reporters exceeding a December count)
rather than reading it as a calibration miss.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Jul 8, 2026
…flict in main's favor (hours/SNAP now carried through via #293/#294; keep TANF entry)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
daphnehanse11 added a commit that referenced this pull request Jul 8, 2026
Max's review of #294 (SNAP take-up) spotted that the static guard
covered immigration outputs plus seeded_take_up_programs() only, so a
program whose stage produces its flag under a different contract
treatment sat outside it — SNAP (out_of_scope) was hand-fixed on #294,
and count_calibrated programs (Medicaid in #334, CHIP next per the
contract followup) had the same exposure: the staleness failure would
only surface on the first release build, not in CI.

The guard now derives the produced set from contract treatments
({seed, count_calibrated}) instead of the seeded helper, making it the
CI enforcement of the rule that each producing PR removes its own
register line. Keyed on the treatment string rather than #334's
count_calibrated_take_up_programs() helper so the test imports nothing
that does not exist on main yet; it picks up the Medicaid flip (and any
future CHIP flip) automatically at merge, in either merge order.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
MaxGhenis pushed a commit that referenced this pull request Jul 9, 2026
…ies (#337)

* Fail the eCPS parity gate on stale exemptions; remove four rotted entries

parity_gate skipped known-gap names unconditionally, unlike its sibling
gates (default_valued_columns_gate at gates.py:707 and
source_stage_input_coverage_gate at gates.py:1499), which both fail on
stale reviewed exclusions. That let register entries rot silently once
the candidate started producing the exempted layer (the
takes_up_medicaid_if_eligible case surfaced in PR #334).

The gate now fails on any exemption whose candidate nonzero share is
positive, reports exemptions the reference never populates as dormant,
and records both in the gate details. Auditing the register against the
current release pipeline found four entries stale on arrival — the
pipeline deterministically materializes them before the gate runs:
takes_up_tanf_if_eligible and takes_up_eitc (contract-seeded take-up,
PR #315), ssn_card_type and immigration_status_str (immigration stage,
#266). A new register test pins that statically-knowable subset so a
stale entry is caught at test time, not first at release-build time.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Extend the register staleness guard to count-calibrated take-up programs

Max's review of #294 (SNAP take-up) spotted that the static guard
covered immigration outputs plus seeded_take_up_programs() only, so a
program whose stage produces its flag under a different contract
treatment sat outside it — SNAP (out_of_scope) was hand-fixed on #294,
and count_calibrated programs (Medicaid in #334, CHIP next per the
contract followup) had the same exposure: the staleness failure would
only surface on the first release build, not in CI.

The guard now derives the produced set from contract treatments
({seed, count_calibrated}) instead of the seeded helper, making it the
CI enforcement of the rule that each producing PR removes its own
register line. Keyed on the treatment string rather than #334's
count_calibrated_take_up_programs() helper so the test imports nothing
that does not exist on main yet; it picks up the Medicaid flip (and any
future CHIP flip) automatically at merge, in either merge order.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Remove the two hours-stage register entries #293 left behind; widen the guard

The #293 hours stage merged without removing its parity register
exemptions, so hours_worked_last_week and weekly_hours_worked_before_lsr
carried false "not yet on the candidate frame" reasons — the stage runs
before the parity gate and its signal gate requires both non-constant,
so the first release build after the staleness enforcement lands would
have failed on them. Both confirmed as engine input variables (its third
output, weeks_worked, has no register entry). hourly_wage stays: it is
an org_wages output and that stage is not executed anywhere yet.

The static register guard now also pins the deterministic stage output
constants (hours, SNAP take-up, eligibility inputs) alongside the
immigration outputs and contract-produced take-up flags, so the next
producing stage that forgets its register line fails in CI rather than
on a release build — #293 slipped through exactly because the guard
did not know stage outputs, only take-up programs.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

---------

Co-authored-by: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
MaxGhenis pushed a commit that referenced this pull request Jul 9, 2026
…ate snapshots (#334)

* Materialize Medicaid take-up via anchored count-calibration to CMS state snapshots

Add a count_calibrated take-up contract treatment (no administrative
participation rate exists for Medicaid, but administrative enrollment
counts do) and a medicaid_take_up source stage following the native ACA
pattern: eligible reporters of has_medicaid_health_coverage_at_interview
always take up, everyone else draws at an in-build state fill rate, and
the assignment is greedily calibrated to CMS December 2024 state
enrollment snapshots among eligible non-anchored persons. Point-in-time
(average-month) semantics per #332, HIPSM precedent recorded in the
contract doctrine.

Builder wiring mirrors the ACA stage: batched engine simulation
materializes person-level is_medicaid_eligible, the medicaid_enrollment
target role compiles the state target table, and a release gate fails on
the all-True landmine while classifying saturated states (CMS count at
or above modeled eligible weight) as the eligibility-undercount symptom
they are. Removes takes_up_medicaid_if_eligible from the reviewed
degenerate-input exclusions; heals the #170 enrollment==eligibility
degeneracy and stops weight calibration from absorbing take-up error
into the eligible population.

CHIP is deliberately deferred behind the #321 M-CHIP/separate-CHIP
ledger concept split; its contract entry records that dependency.

Closes #331; doctrine half of #332.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Harden the Medicaid take-up gate and builder wiring from adversarial review

Findings from an 8-angle review with per-finding verification; the
confirmed defects and their fixes:

- Bump TARGET_FRAME_CHECKPOINT_MATERIALIZER_VERSION to 2: the checkpoint
  identity hashes the on-disk base dataset, not the staged frame, so a
  pre-stage checkpoint would silently calibrate weights against all-True
  medicaid_enrolled columns while the export ships the new flag.
- Rework the gate landmine check: full enrollment explained by anchor
  mass or by a floor within granularity (2% or one person weight) of
  eligibility is a legitimate calibrated outcome, not a spurious build
  abort; the count-miss check gains the same granularity allowance.
- Make anchor preservation a person-level invariant checked in every
  state, saturated or not (anchored_not_taking_up_count in diagnostics);
  aggregate comparisons cannot see a dropped anchor once calibration
  back-fills to the count.
- Delete the now-false eCPS parity exemption for
  takes_up_medicaid_if_eligible (parity_gate has no staleness check, so
  the stale entry would exempt the layer forever); the anchored column
  clears the presence-based gate on its own.
- Refuse duplicate per-state target rows in the builder table: the
  calibrate op is last-row-wins while rate/diagnostics/gate sum them.
- Re-check count-calibrated columns on the export frame: a downstream
  transform dropping the column can no longer ship the engine-default
  landmine with only an observational JSON field recording it.
- Keep the debt-ledger pointer (scope_owner/followup) on
  count_calibrated participation rows and label the share's universe
  (off-domain propensity included) so it cannot be read as enrollment.
- Refuse empty state targets up front; record weights_basis and
  max_person_weight in diagnostics; reuse take_up's stable-draw keying
  and Frame.broadcast instead of private near-copies; drop dead knobs.

Refuted in verification (no change): NaN targets cannot reach the stage
(ledger compilation enforces math.isfinite at both entry points).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Rename the module state-FIPS normalizer; refuse missing values

The module helper shared a name with the builder's _state_fips_text but
not its semantics (regex strip vs int coercion; silent 'nan' strings vs
raising) — the same-name trap the #334 review flagged. Rename to
_normalize_state_fips and refuse NaN input rather than letting a missing
code surface later as a confusing states-without-targets gate failure.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Document the anchor-month vs snapshot-month offset explicitly

Max's #294 review pattern (he independently audited the FNS rate's
vintage against newer publications) says the sharpest domain question
on this stage is the one thing left implicit: the ASEC anchor is
interview-point (~Feb-Apr) while the CMS target is the December
snapshot. Record in the module docstring and the contract calibration
block that both are point-in-time stocks with deliberately unaligned
months, and that the gate's anchor-floor rule absorbs the
declining-2024 direction (spring reporters exceeding a December count)
rather than reading it as a calibration miss.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Fail the take-up gate when a state has a CMS count but zero eligible weight

A state whose eligibility feed collapsed to zero classifies as saturated
(any positive count exceeds zero eligible weight), which skipped the
count checks and would ship anchored-only enrollment silently. Treat
that saturation as a division artifact and fail the gate instead.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

---------

Co-authored-by: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Carry SNAP reported amounts and take-up inputs through Populace US outputs

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